ARC_TRAINING MODULE ON EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE

CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE TRENDS AT GLOBAL AND LOCAL LEVELS

UNIT TWO: CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE TRENDS AT GLOBAL AND LOCAL LEVELS

 

Unit 2: Current and Future Climate Trends at global and local levels
Content: This unit describes:

§   the evolution of the current and future climate

§  the impacts of Climate Change on natural and human systems

Objective: The objective of the unit at end is to:

§  Improve knowledge on the evolution of the current and future climate

§  Improve understanding of the impacts of CC on natural and human systems

Participants: Scientists, reporters, decisions makers, practionners such fields workers (NGOs, etc)
Method of training: Participatory training/facilitation methodologies, lectures, group discussions, case studies, PowerPoint presentation, etc.
Training material Flip charts, notebooks and pens, marker pens, white board, white board markers, projector
Exercises
Duration: 40 mins
Evaluation: To be decided by the facilitator
Reference Material Thornton, and Heinke (2009): Crop Physiological Response to Climate Change (Peanut, Senegal

 

OCDE(2009) Adaptation au changement climatique et coopération pour le développement: document d’orientation. Editions OCDE, Paris

 

Stern N. (2007) The Economics of Climate Change: Stern Review. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

 

M. Ly et al. (2013), Evolution of some observed climate extremes in the West African Sahel, Weather and Climate Extremes 1 19–25

 

GIEC 2007 et 2013, degré de confiance élevé à très élevé ; BAD, 2013

 

Thornton, and Heinke (2009): Crop Physiological Response to Climate Change (Peanut, Senegal)

 

Ali, A. and T. Lebel (2008). “The sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited.” International Journal of climatology 10(1002/joc.1832

 

Published online in Wiley InterScience. www.interscience.wiley.com

 

CILSS/CRA (2010). Le Sahel face au Changement Climatique. Enjeux pour un développement durable. Niamey (Niger) 42.

 

CILSS (2014). Module d’intégration du changement climatique dans les politiques de développement National. Projet GCCA

 

GIEC (2001). “Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Question 3. http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Ftar/?src=/climate/ipcc_t ar/vol4/french/index.htm.” GTI TRE Section 11.5.1.

 

GIEC (2007). “Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques : Rapport de synthèse “www.ipcc.ch.

 

GIEC (2007). Climate Change 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK 976

 

GIEC (2014). Changements climatiques 2014 : Impacts, vulnérabilité et adaptation. Résumé à l’intention des décideurs. www.developpement- durable.gouv.fr/giec Gèneve 42

 

 

Description of facilitation methods

Before starting the training, the facilitator is required to go through the facilitation notes and the facilitation methodology for each session. Additional materials for the unit are provided in the links available in the sessions and in the facilitation notes.

 

Notes for the facilitator

 

Section 1:    Climate trends

 

  • Global temperature trends

The IPCC (2007) concludes with a very high degree of confidence (probability> 90%) that human activities since 1750 have the net effect of warming the global climate.

 

 

Figure: Correlation between atmospheric CO2 and the air temperature (Source IPCC 2007)

 

 

 

From 1906 to 2012, the average temperature on the surface of the earth increased by 0.80°C (IPCC, 2013)

During the period 1901 -2010, the mean sea level rose by 0.19 m

 

 

Figure: Change in global surface temperature 1901-2012 (Source: IPCC 2013)

 

Ø  Global current and future trends in climate: temperature and precipitation

  • Increased temperatures at the end of the 21st century by 2°C for the optimistic scenario (mitigation policy) and at + 4°C for the pessimist
  • For future rainfall, few significant variations in West Africa. However, there are still many differences between models and many

 

(GIEC, 2013)

 

  • Current climate trends in the Sahel precipitation

 

  • 50s wet and 70s, 80s dry
  • Since the 1990s and 2000, greater interannual rainfall variability
10°N

 

 

 

 

 

Equateur

 

e  i

 

u  l

p

de

ce

di

n I

Persistance d’années sèches
  • This variability of rains is associated with an upsurge of heavy rains and floods in several places in West Africa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Persistance d’années humides
Alternance brusque entre année humide et

Figure: Evolution of the rainfall index in the Sahel from 1950 to 2005, Source: Agrhymet

 

  • Evolution of some observed climate extremes in the West African Sahel

 

  • Decrease of cold nights
  • Increase of warm days
  • Increase of warm spells
  • Decrease of Diurnal temperature range

Figure: Observed trends in some temperature indices in West Africa from 1960 to 2010. (a) Cool nights (Tn10p), (b), Warm days (Tx90p), (c) Warm Spells (WSDI), and (d) Diurnal temperature range (DTR).

 

 

 

 

  • Decrease of total annual precipitation
  • Increase of cumulated rainfall of extremely wet days
  • Decrease of Maximum Consecutive Wet days

 

 

Figure: Observed trends in some rainfall indices in West Africa from 1960 to 2010. (a) 5-day cumulative rainfall, (b) Total annual precipitation, (c) Cumulated rainfall of extremely wet days, and (d) Maximum Consecutive Wet days. M. Ly et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 1 (2013)

 

 

Section 2: Climate impacts

 

  • Main consequences of CC

 

Climate impacts?

 

 

 

 

 

  • Future climate impacts

 

  • Crop Physiological Response to Climate Change (Peanut, Senegal):

All models simulate a drop in peanut yield of 5 to 25% between 2000 and 2050

 

Notes: A1B = greenhouse gas emissions scenario that assumes fast economic growth, a population that peaks midcentury, and the development of new and efficient technologies, along with a balanced use of energy sources; CNRM-CM3 = National Meteorological Research Center–Climate Model 3; CSIRO = climate model developed at the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization; ECHAM 5 = fifth-generation climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg); GCM = general circulation model; MIROC = Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, developed at the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research.

Source: Authors’ estimates based on Jones, Thornton, and Heinke (2009)

 

 

Ø  Future impacts

In the rest of the report, GIEC experts set out the effects of these changes:

  • Beyond 2 to 3 degrees more than in 1990, warming will have negative impacts on all regions of the
  • Above 1.5 to 2.5 ° C more, 20 to 30% of animal and plant species may
  • The number of flood victims could increase by two to seven million people each
  • By 2080, droughts, soil degradation and salinization will lead 3.2 billion people to run out of water and 600 million to
  • The consequences of these floods will be more severe where population pressure is increasing and in the large deltas of West Africa, Asia or
  • “Poor people, even in prosperous societies, are the most vulnerable to climate change,” the experts added during the press
  • Political Chipotage

 

Ø  Regional impacts in Africa

By 2020, 75 to 250 million people are expected to suffer from a lack of water accentuated by climate change.

  • Increased risk of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (vector-borne, waterborne and respiratory diseases) of cardiovascular diseases during heatwaves; increased victims of disasters such as floods,
  • By 2020, in some countries, the yield of rain fed agriculture could fall by 50%, with serious consequences for food security and malnutrition, i.e. agricultural losses of 2- 4% of the countries’ GDP. 75% of the African population could be exposed to hunger

 

  • By 2100, the anticipated rise in sea level will affect the densely populated coastal lowlands (coastal erosion, floods, salinization, etc.) The cost of adaptation will be 5 to 10% of the GDP of the coastal
  • By 2080, according to several climate scenarios, the area of arid and semi-arid lands could increase by 5 to 8%.

Intensification of migration, conflicts (due to the sharing of scarce resources)

 

Source: IPCC 2007 and 2013, high to very high confidence; AfDB, 2013

 

 

Ø  Adaptation and inaction in the face of climate change

 

  • Uncertainties related to climate change should not justify inaction
  • However, in a medium and long term perspective, inaction today may be more costly:

 

See N. Stern 2006 report on the economics of climate change: current costs of adaptation would be 17 to 187 billion US dollars, costs could reach 100 billion US dollars in 2050 according to the World Bank (2010). In all the bags these costs are lower than the costs of inaction

 

 

References

 

Thornton, and Heinke (2009): Crop Physiological Response to Climate Change (Peanut, Senegal

 

OCDE(2009) Adaptation au changement climatique et coopération pour le développement: document d’orientation. Editions OCDE, Paris

 

Stern N. (2007) The Economics of Climate Change: Stern Review. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

 

  1. Ly et al. (2013), Evolution of some observed climate extremes in the West African Sahel, Weather and Climate Extremes 1 19–25

 

GIEC 2007 et 2013, degré de confiance élevé à très élevé ; BAD, 2013

 

Thornton, and Heinke (2009): Crop Physiological Response to Climate Change (Peanut, Senegal)

 

Ali, A. and T. Lebel (2008). “The sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited.” International Journal of climatology 10(1002/joc.1832 Published online in Wiley InterScience. www.interscience.wiley.com

 

CILSS/CRA (2010). Le Sahel face au Changement Climatique. Enjeux pour un développement durable. Niamey (Niger) 42.

 

CILSS (2014). Module d’intégration du changement climatique dans les politiques de développement National. Projet GCCA

 

GIEC      (2001).       “Climate      Change      2001:       Synthesis       Report.      Question       3. http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Ftar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/french/in dex.htm.” GTI TRE Section 11.5.1.

 

GIEC (2007). “Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques : Rapport de synthèse “www.ipcc.ch.

 

GIEC (2007). Climate Change 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK 976

 

GIEC (2014). Changements climatiques 2014 : Impacts, vulnérabilité et adaptation. Résumé  à l’intention des décideurs. www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/giec Gèneve 42

 

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